Autor : Terroba, Hernán1, Fielli, Mariano1, González, Alejandra1
1Hospital Nacional Prof. A. Posadas.
https://doi.org/10.56538/ramr.OVQL7250
Correspondencia : Hernán Terroba. E-mail: hterroba@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Objective: To compare the abbreviated Pitt score (qPitt) with the CURB-65 and ATS
(American Thoracic Society) scores to predict mortality, in a cohort of
patients with bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia.
Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out including a cohort of patients
with clinical and radiological criteria for pneumonia and with isolation of
Streptococcus pneumoniae in blood cultures, during the period between January
2012 and May 2019. Age, sex, comorbidities and mortality during hospitalization
were analyzed. CURB-65, ATS and qPitt scores were calculated, and their ROC
(receiver operating characteristic) curves were compared.
Results: 153 patients were analyzed. The mean age was 54 years and the overall
mortality was 34%. The ROC curves showed areas under the curve of 0.8072,
0.7654 and 0.6900 for qPitt, ATS and CURB-65 scores, respectively. The qPitt
showed the highest area under the curve (AUC), with a statistically significant
difference with respect to the CURB-65 (p 0.0020), a sensitivity of 73% and
specificity of 85%, with a positive likelihood ratio of 4.82 for a score of 2
points or more.
Conclusion: The qPitt demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity for predicting
mortality, and its performance is equivalent to the widely used ATS and
CURB-65 scores.
Key words: Streptococcus Pneumoniae, Bacteremia, Severity score
RESUMEN
Objetivo: Comparar el rendimiento del índice (score) de Pitt abreviado para
mortalidad, con respecto a los índices de CURB-65 y ATS, en una cohorte
de pacientes con neumonía bacteriémica por neumococo.
Materiales y Métodos: Se realizó un estudio transversal en el que se incluyó una cohorte
de pacientes con criterios clínicos y radiológicos de
neumonía y con aislamiento de Streptococcus pneumoniae en hemocultivos,
durante el período comprendido entre enero de 2012 y mayo 2019. Se
analizaron edad, sexo, comorbilidades y mortalidad durante la
internación. Se calcularon los índices de CURB-65, ATS y de Pitt
abreviado y se compararon sus curvas ROC (receiver operating characteristic).
Resultados: Se analizaron 153 pacientes cuya edad promedio fue de 54 años; la
mortalidad global fue del 34 %. Las curvas ROC mostraron áreas bajo la
curva de 0,8072, 0,7654 y 0,6900 para los índices de qPitt, ATS y
CURB-65, respectivamente. El de Pitt abreviado mostró la mayor
área bajo la curva, con una diferencia estadísticamente significativa
con respecto al CURB-65 (p 0,0020) y una sensibilidad del 73 % y
especificidad del 85 %, con un likelihood ratio positivo de 4,82 para un
puntaje de 2 o más puntos.
Conclusión: el índice de Pitt abreviado demostró tener elevada
sensibilidad y especificidad para predecir mortalidad, con un rendimiento
equiparable a los índices de ATS y CURB-65, ampliamente utilizados.
Palabras clave: Streptococcus Pneumoniae, Bacteriemia, Score de severidad
Received: 02/07/2023
Accepted: 12/19/2024
Streptococcus pneumoniae is a gram-positive diplococcus comprising more than 90 serotypes, which
are defined by the polysaccharide composition of their capsule.1
Among communicable diseases,
lower respiratory tract infections –primarily community-acquired pneumonia
(CAP)– account for the highest mortality rates, with
pneumococcus being the primary etiological agent of these infectious syndromes.
According to some studies, the pneumococcus is implicated in 25% to 68% of
cases, depending on the diagnostic methods available, and co-infection with
other germs is common.2
Nasopharyngeal colonization by
pneumococcus is extremely common, occurring in 40% to
95% of the pediatric population and 1% to 10% of adults.3
Pneumococcus can also cause localized infections or invasive
pneumococcal disease (IPD), which includes pneumonia with bacteremia,
meningitis, and sepsis.4
IPD is associated with high
morbidity and mortality rates worldwide.5
The World Health Organization estimates that pneumococcal infections
cause 1.6 million deaths annually, including 1 million in children under 5 years of age.6
The development of an invasive
form of the disease depends on the host factors (age and underlying conditions)
and bacterial virulence (mainly the serotype).5,7
Host factors associated with a
higher risk of IPD and greater mortality include solid tumors, diabetes,
cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease/dialysis, liver cirrhosis, and
neurological diseases. Interestingly, other conditions such as HIV, asplenia,
oncohematological diseases, COPD, and autoimmune diseases are not associated
with such risk.8
The isolation of pneumococcus in
blood cultures from hospitalized patients with pneumonia varies between 5% to
20%, according to different studies.9-11 The correlation between the severity of the
condition, as measured by different severity scores, and the presence of
bacteremia has been a topic of debate.12,13
Despite the availability of
critical care units and multiple antibiotic regimens, the morbidity and
mortality associated with CAP remain high. Approximately 20% of patients
require hospitalization, with mortality rates in this group ranging from 30%
to 50%.14,15
Early identification of patients
at greater risk of having poor outcomes is vital. This requires knowing the
predisposing risk factors for developing severe forms of CAP that support the
creation of more precise severity scores. Currently, the most commonly used
scores for CAP are the CURB-65 and ATS scores.
The Pitt Bacteremia Score (PBS)
has been used for decades as an objective measure of severity in bacteremia
caused by gram-negative germs or sepsis.16,17 Additionally,
there is an abbreviated version of the PBS (qPitt) which incorporates binary
variables (Table 1) that are exclusively clinical and independently associated
with mortality after 14 days. Battle et al used Cox regression to define five
independent variables associated with mortality in patients with gram-negative
bacteremia. They established a score based on these variables (qPitt) and
compared its performance with qSOFA. The qPitt demonstrated better performance
in predicting mortality 14 days after blood cultures were obtained.18
OBJECTIVE
To compare the qPitt with the
CURB-65 and ATS scores in a cohort of patients with bacteremic pneumococcal
pneumonia with regard to their ability to predict mortality.
METHODS
A cross-sectional study was
carried out including a cohort of patients with clinical and radiological
criteria for pneumonia and with isolation of pneumococcus in blood cultures,
during the period between January 2012 and May 2019.
Age, sex, comorbidities and
mortality during hospitalization were analyzed. The CURB-65, ATS and
abbreviated qPitt scores were applied to such cohort (Table 1).
The corresponding ROC curves were
calculated with these scores for mortality prediction, and they were compared
against one another. The best cutoff point for the qPitt score was determined.
RESULTS
153 patients were analyzed. The
average age was 54 years, with 42% being women, and the median hospital stay
was 11 days. The most common comorbidities were: smoking (39%), HIV (20%),
alcoholism (20%), diabetes (17%) and oncological diseases (17%). 66% of the
population (101 patients) had one or more comorbidities. The overall
mortality rate was 34%. The ROC curves showed values of 0.6900 for the CURB-65,
0.7654 for the ATS and 0.8072 for the qPitt (Fig. 1). The qPitt score
demonstrated a sensitivity of 73% and a specificity of 85%, with a positive
likelihood ratio (LR+) of 4.82 for a score of 2 or more points. No significant
difference was found between the ROC curves of qPitt and ATS (p = 0.2293) or between
ATS and CURB-65 (p = 0.1559). However, there was a significant difference
between qPitt and CURB-65 (p = 0.0020).
DISCUSSION
In cases of diseases with high
prevalence and high morbidity and mortality, it becomes crucial to have easily
applicable and rapid severity scores, with high sensitivity and specificity,
for proper use of resources. This approach allows for appropriate treatment
and monitoring based on the probable course of the disease.19
Initially, the PBS was validated
as a severity score for bacteremia caused by gram-negative germs, both
community-acquired and hospital-acquired.20,21 It has proven to be a useful and simple tool due to its lower complexity and more accessible
variables compared to other scores, such as APACHE II, which is commonly used
in critical care units.22
Furthermore, it has
also been validated for other bacteremic diseases, including those caused by Staphylococcus
aureus23 and pneumococcus. Yu et al found a high
correlation between the PBS and APACHE II, with the PBS demonstrating even
greater predictive value for mortality (81 vs. 74.9).24 Feldman et
al analyzed various severity scores (PBS, modified ATS, IDSA/ATS, CURB-65, and
PSI) and their effectiveness in identifying patients with severe conditions who
would benefit from admission to an intensive care unit. They found a better
correlation between high scores on the PBS and modified ATS.25
Furthermore, for the
purpose of developing a simpler score, Battle S. et al identified independent,
exclusively clinical predictors of mortality and created the qPitt score. This
score has also been validated for bacteremia caused by gram-negative germs and Staphylococcus
aureus.18,26
In our study, we
collected an extensive database over seven years of patients with pneumonia and
pneumococcal bacteremia, and we have applied the severity scores that are
commonly used in our setting (IDSA/ATS and CURB-65) and compared them with the
qPitt score. The selection of patients with clinical and radiological criteria
for pneumonia associated with bacteremia ensures, on the one hand, the identification
of the etiological agent (excluding patients with sputum cultures, considering
the high prevalence of pneumococcus in the nasopharynx of asymptomatic
individuals) and, on the other hand, the diagnosis. The association between
severity and bacteremia remains somewhat unclear, with conflicting reports on
this topic. Campbell et al found in a prospective multicenter study, a poor
correlation between the severity of the condition as assessed by the PSI score
(Pneumonia Severity Index) and the microbiological findings in blood cultures.12
Levy et al found that among ICU-admitted patients, the microbiological yield
from blood cultures was 46%, while in those who did not require intensive care,
the yield was only 7.75%.27 Similarly, Waterer et al also describe a
higher incidence of positive blood cultures in patients with more severe
conditions. However, they conclude that blood culture results do not produce
significant changes in clinical outcomes, suggesting that the utility of this
tool would be limited.13
The mortality rate in
our study was 34%, which is higher than the findings from other series, for
example, Kyaw et al, who collected the data from all the patients with
pneumococcal bacteremia from Scotland between 1999 and 2001 and reported a mortality
rate of 10.6% in patients over 65 years old and between 1-5% in the rest of the
population.28 However, Rock et al described a mortality rate of
21.2% in a 2013 study conducted in a tertiary-care center in Ireland.29
Our mortality rate is higher than the one mentioned in the references and in
most of the studies around the world, especially those involving large regional
populations, but it aligns more closely with the findings from tertiary-care
centers. This variation in mortality could be attributed to several factors of
the host, including inappropriate antibiotic use (no penicillin-resistant
strains were found in our series), vaccination rates, and the virulence of
different pneumococcus serotypes (a limitation in our study, as we did not have
vaccination records or data on serotypes).
In our series, we
observed that 53 patients (36.6%) had a qPitt score ≥2, and of these, 38
patients (71.7%) died. 58
patients met the ATS criteria (at least two minor criteria or one major
criterion), and their mortality rate was 56.8% (n = 33). For CURB-65, 69
patients had a score of 2-3, with a mortality rate of 36% (n = 25). Finally, 15
patients had a score of 4-5, with a mortality rate of 80% (Table 2).
CONCLUSION
Severity scores are
an essential tool for classifying patients at the onset of any disease,
allowing therapeutic efforts to be tailored according to the current needs and
the clinical progression of the condition. In our series, we found that the
qPitt score performs similarly to the commonly used scores, although further
prospective evaluation would be necessary.
Conflict of interest
The authors have no
conflicts of interest to declare in relation to the topic of this publication.
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